International Soccer

Supercomputer predicts Premier League relegation scrap after Nottingham Forest receive points deduction

Nottingham Forest’s hopes of Premier League survival took a major hit before the March international break.

Nuno Espirito Santo’s side were already embroiled in the relegation scrap but a four-point penalty handed out for breaching the division’s profitability and sustainability rules (PSR) means Forest really are fighting for their lives.

Everton were also previously punished for exceeding their PSR allowance, but how does Forest’s immediate sanction alter their and other clubs’ chances of going down?

Nuno Espirito Santo

Nuno has a lot of work to do / Ryan Hiscott/GettyImages

After being referred to an independent commission in January, it was confirmed on Monday that Forest would be stripped of four points for their financial mismanagement.

The East Midlands outfit were treading water in 17th place before the ruling but have since dropped to 18th, below Luton Town by a point and four behind 16th Everton, who may still be hit with another PSR punishment yet.

Forest and Luton battled it out on Saturday as Luke Berry’s late equaliser cancelled out Chris Wood’s earlier effort.

Position

Team

Played

Points

Goal difference

15th

Brentford

29

26

-13

16th

Everton

28

25

-10

17th

Luton

29

22

-18

18th

Nott’m Forest

29

21

-16

19th

Burnley

29

17

-34

20th

Sheffield Utd

28

14

-50

Rob Edwards

Luton are still in trouble / Julian Finney/GettyImages

The points deduction is a big blow for Forest but undoubtedly a major positive for other sides scrapping for survival down at the bottom of the Premier League.

While Opta have seen enough from Everton to suggest dropping into the Championship is unlikely at best, Forest’s punishment has resulted in Luton Town’s chances of relegation dropping from 78.1% to 62.1%.

It’s the Hatters’ hopes which have improved the most of the teams in trouble down at the bottom, but their percentage is still almost double Forest’s after the sanction came into effect. Their chances of relegation are now rated at 37.5% – just over a one-in-three probability – having sat at 13.4% before the ruling.

Team

Before Forest points deduction

After Forest points deduction

Everton

5.1%

3.3%

Luton Town

78.1%

62.1%

Nottingham Forest

13.4%

37.5%

Burnley

97.5%

94.8%

Sheffield United

99.6%

98.4%

All date provided by Opta.

The ruling has done little for the prospects of either Burnley or Sheffield United. The two league minnows are considerably cut adrift at the bottom and still nailed on for the drop at 94.8% and 98.4% respectively.

As for Forest, Nuno has to immediately use the punishment to extract extra fire and commitment from his players just like Everton did. The Toffees won four of their five matches after the ten-point penalty was first handed out in November, though they haven’t tasted victory in their 11 Premier League fixtures since.

Former Wolves boss Nuno will at least be buoyed by his side’s run-in during the final few months of the season.

While games against Tottenham and Manchester City will be difficult, clashes with Crystal Palace, Fulham, Everton, Sheffield United, Chelsea and Burnley are all winnable.

Date

Fixture

30/03/24

Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace

02/04/24

Nottingham Forest vs Fulham

08/04/24

Tottenham vs Nottingham Forest

13/04/24

Nottingham Forest vs Wolves

20/04/24

Everton vs Nottingham Forest

27/04/24

Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City

04/05/24

Sheffield United vs Nottingham Forest

11/05/24

Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea

19/05/24

Burnley vs Nottingham Forest

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